The end of this unusually long console cycle is visible, with Nintendo today announcing that the Wii successor is coming in 2012; Sony and Microsoft “sources” saying that they are holding out until 2014.
Still an interesting time: now that the traditional 5-year console cycle is no longer set in stone, what will happen? Is there room for another console cycle based on (technically) better graphics? Will physical distribution go away? Is AAA development sustainable?
As I like to point out, budgets have traditionally been doubling for every console generation, but exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely. If the PS4 has graphic capabilities that require a doubling of budgets, how many Red Dead Redemption*2 games will investment money be willing to support? And if there are only few games that exploit a PS4 properly, will people buy one? And if too few consoles are sold, how will platform holders recoup their investment?
The sound you hear is from an army of analysts working their spreadsheets.
Word on the street is that physical games – console cartridges, disks, etc. – are, indeed on the way out. I think the projection is that they will be completely replaced by downloads, but there’s always the physical nostalgia/collector’s component to take into account. Like e-books/books, there will always be people who insist, in the face of immediate technology, on the tangibility of a game’s “gameness”. And what of the idea that the physical form of a game is part of the experience of it – glitches and scratches included? Is this just sentimentality or is there a definite experiential component (beyond the emotional) behind the console contingent’s claim? I wonder if/how console-based companies take this into account.
@Garrett I do think that physical products remain important as gifts – it’s no coincidence that the holiday season has the biggest sales. Question is whether that will keep physical game distribution alive.